A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they support unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
